West Brom vs Bolton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.68 expected goals for West Brom and 1.13 for Bolton, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives West Brom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

West Brom win

50.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.68 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

West Brom home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bolton away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

West Brom win50%

Draw24%

Bolton win26%

Double chance 1X

74%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–010.2%
2–19.6%
2–08.5%
0–16.8%

Recent form

West Brom

2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Watford · 1-0 (W)

Bolton

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stoke City · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 0-4 (L)

Head-to-head

2024-07-13T13:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-2 Bolton (Friendlies Clubs)
2023-07-29T14:00:00.000Z · West Brom 3-4 Bolton (Friendlies Clubs)
2019-01-21T20:00:00.000Z · West Brom 2-0 Bolton (Championship)
2018-08-04T14:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-2 Bolton (Championship)
2012-05-06T13:00:00.000Z · West Brom 2-2 Bolton (Premier League)
2011-11-19T15:00:00.000Z · West Brom 2-1 Bolton (Premier League)
2010-12-26T15:00:00.000Z · West Brom 0-2 Bolton (Premier League)
2010-10-02T14:00:00.000Z · West Brom 1-1 Bolton (Premier League)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is West Brom win, at 50.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.