The Hawthorns · Analysis updated 14:58 UTC
West Brom vs Southampton Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for West Brom and 1.10 for Southampton, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives West Brom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
West Brom home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Southampton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates West Brom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 28% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for West Brom and 1.10 for Southampton, a combined 2.35 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–011.9%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
West Brom
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Birmingham · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-0 (W)
Southampton
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.