Rush Green Stadium · Analysis updated 15:50 UTC
West Ham United U21 vs Brighton U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.20 expected goals for West Ham United U21 and 1.58 for Brighton U21, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Brighton U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Brighton U21 win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
West Ham United U21 home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Brighton U21 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.8%
- 0–19.8%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–27.7%
- 1–07.4%
Recent form
West Ham United U21
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Valencia U21 · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Leicester City U21 · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liverpool U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Aldershot Town · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton U21 · 1-1 (D)
Brighton U21
- 2026-10-18T12:30:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-10-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Gillingham · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield United U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Liverpool U21 · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint-Germain U21 · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-04T18:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 0-3 Brighton U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2025-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 3-3 Brighton U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-08-16T18:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 2-0 Brighton U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-03-15T19:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 4-1 Brighton U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2024-02-23T19:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 2-1 Brighton U21 (Premier League International Cup)
- 2023-02-27T19:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 3-2 Brighton U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
- 2022-10-22T15:00:00.000Z · West Ham United U21 2-3 Brighton U21 (Premier League 2 Division One)
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Brighton U21 win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.