London Stadium · Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
West Ham vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.35 expected goals for West Ham and 1.09 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives West Ham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
West Ham win
65.3% probability
Expected goals
2.35 – 1.09
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
West Ham home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portsmouth away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates West Ham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 19% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.35 goals for West Ham and 1.09 for Portsmouth, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.6%
- 2–08.8%
- 1–18.2%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–07.5%
Recent form
West Ham
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs QPR · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Fulham · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wrexham · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bolton · 3-2 (W)
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cardiff · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 5 | West Ham | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 11 | 16 |
| 6 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 7 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 8 | QPR | 9 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Wolves | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 10 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 11 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 | Southampton | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 10 | 13 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 12 |
| 16 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 17 | Lincoln | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 19 | Norwich | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -2 | 9 |
| 20 | Portsmouth | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 8 |
| 21 | Burnley | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is West Ham win, at 65.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.