Chigwell Construction Stadium · Analysis updated 20:25 UTC
West Ham W vs Charlton Athletic W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for West Ham W and 0.94 for Charlton Athletic W, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives West Ham W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
West Ham W win
60.9% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 0.94
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
West Ham W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates West Ham W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 18% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for West Ham W and 0.94 for Charlton Athletic W, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 55% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
82%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–010.8%
- 2–010.5%
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.8%
Recent form
West Ham W
- 2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:45:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 2-1 (W)
Charlton Athletic W
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA WSL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchester City W | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 11 | 18 |
| 2 | Chelsea W | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 16 |
| 3 | London City Lionesses W | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 15 |
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 10 |
| 5 | Manchester United W | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 6 | Everton W | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 7 | Liverpool W | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 7 |
| 8 | Arsenal W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 9 | West Ham W | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 6 |
| 10 | Aston Villa W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 11 | Crystal Palace W | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -7 | 6 |
| 12 | Brighton W | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 | Birmingham City W | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 14 | Charlton Athletic W | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -15 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is West Ham W win, at 60.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.