West Ham W vs London City Lionesses W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for West Ham W and 2.13 for London City Lionesses W, a combined total of 3.19. That distribution gives London City Lionesses W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

London City Lionesses W win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.06 – 2.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

West Ham W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
London City Lionesses W away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates London City Lionesses W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 18% / 20% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for West Ham W and 2.13 for London City Lionesses W, a combined 3.19 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

West Ham W win18%

Draw20%

London City Lionesses W win62%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

82%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score58%

Correct score

1–29.9%
0–29.4%
1–19.3%
0–18.8%
1–37.0%

Recent form

West Ham W

2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United W · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T11:45:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 2-1 (W)

London City Lionesses W

2026-10-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham W · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 6-1 (W)
2026-09-30T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Ipswich Town W · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Brighton W · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

FA WSL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City W	6	6	0	0	11	18
2	Chelsea W	6	5	1	0	15	16
3	London City Lionesses W	6	5	0	1	11	15
4	Tottenham Hotspur W	6	3	1	2	4	10
5	Manchester United W	6	3	1	2	-2	10
6	Everton W	6	3	0	3	-1	9
7	Liverpool W	6	2	1	3	2	7
8	Arsenal W	6	1	3	2	-2	6
9	West Ham W	6	2	0	4	-5	6
10	Aston Villa W	6	1	3	2	-6	6
11	Crystal Palace W	6	1	3	2	-7	6
12	Brighton W	6	1	2	3	0	5
13	Birmingham City W	6	0	3	3	-5	3
14	Charlton Athletic W	6	0	0	6	-15	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is London City Lionesses W win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.