West Ham W vs Southampton W Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.92 expected goals for West Ham W and 1.09 for Southampton W, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives West Ham W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

West Ham W win

56.7% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.92 – 1.09

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

West Ham W home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates West Ham W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.92 goals for West Ham W and 1.09 for Southampton W, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 57%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.

Match result (1X2)

West Ham W win57%

Draw22%

Southampton W win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

43%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals80%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals35%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.3%
2–19.9%
1–09.5%
2–09.1%
3–16.3%

Recent form

West Ham W

2026-09-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton W · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester United W · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-23T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Tottenham Hotspur W · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Everton W · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T11:45:00.000Z · H vs London City Lionesses W · 2-1 (W)

Southampton W

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

WSL Cup table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Manchester United W	2	2	0	0	13	6
2	Aston Villa W	2	2	0	0	4	6
3	Crystal Palace W	2	2	0	0	4	6
4	Liverpool W	2	2	0	0	3	6
5	London City Lionesses W	2	2	0	0	3	6
6	West Ham W	2	1	1	0	2	4
7	Tottenham Hotspur W	2	1	1	0	1	4
8	Brighton W	2	1	0	1	3	3
9	Everton W	1	1	0	0	2	3
10	Burnley W	1	1	0	0	1	3
11	Sunderland W	2	1	0	1	-1	3
12	Wolverhampton W	1	0	1	0	0	1
13	Bristol City W	1	0	1	0	0	1
14	Ipswich Town W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
15	Watford W	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Leicester City FC W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Southampton W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Nottingham Forest W	2	0	1	1	-2	1
19	Sheffield United W	2	0	1	1	-9	1
20	Birmingham City W	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Newcastle United W	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Durham W	2	0	0	2	-5	0
23	Charlton Athletic W	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is West Ham W win, at 56.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.