Endeavour Park · Analysis updated 16:10 UTC
Western Suburbs vs Birkenhead United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.08 expected goals for Western Suburbs and 2.25 for Birkenhead United, a combined total of 5.33. That distribution gives Western Suburbs the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 85% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Western Suburbs win
55.1% probability
Expected goals
3.08 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Birkenhead United away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Western Suburbs to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 17% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.08 goals for Western Suburbs and 2.25 for Birkenhead United, a combined 5.33 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 90% and both teams to score at 85%, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
45%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–26.0%
- 2–25.8%
- 3–15.3%
- 2–15.2%
- 4–24.6%
Recent form
Western Suburbs
Birkenhead United
- 2026-09-27T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cashmere Technical · 0-4 (L)
- 2025-12-07T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Western Springs · 3-1 (W)
- 2025-11-29T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Wellington Phoenix II · 3-2 (W)
- 2025-11-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Miramar · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-11-15T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland United · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - National table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cashmere Technical | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 18 | 12 |
| 2 | Auckland City | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 3 | Miramar | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 10 |
| 4 | Birkenhead United | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 5 | Auckland United | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 8 |
| 6 | Wellington Olympic | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Napier City Rovers | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 7 |
| 8 | Ferrymead Bays | 5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 4 |
| 9 | Eastern Suburbs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 10 | Auckland FC 2 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -10 | 1 |
| 11 | Wellington Phoenix II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Western Suburbs win, at 55.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 85% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.