· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Western United II vs Bulleen Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Western United II and 2.18 for Bulleen Lions, a combined total of 4.38. That distribution gives Western United II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 81% for over 2.5 goals and 79% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
60.3% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 2.18
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Western United II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bulleen Lions away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–27.2%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–26.6%
- 1–16.0%
- 3–25.3%
Recent form
Western United II
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-22T07:00:00.000Z · A vs North Geelong Warriors · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Langwarrin · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-31T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Knights · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-07-24T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Brunswick City · 0-5 (L)
Bulleen Lions
- 2026-09-11T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Northcote City · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-30T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Northcote City · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T08:15:00.000Z · A vs Melbourne Srbija · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-17T10:30:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-01T07:00:00.000Z · A vs North Geelong Warriors · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-19T04:00:00.000Z · Western United II 2-4 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2026-04-11T08:30:00.000Z · Western United II 0-2 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2025-07-09T10:00:00.000Z · Western United II 1-0 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2025-02-10T09:30:00.000Z · Western United II 3-2 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2024-08-11T06:00:00.000Z · Western United II 5-0 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2024-05-06T10:30:00.000Z · Western United II 3-0 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2023-08-19T05:00:00.000Z · Western United II 1-3 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
- 2023-05-14T05:00:00.000Z · Western United II 3-1 Bulleen Lions (Victoria NPL 2)
Victoria NPL 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunswick Juventus FC | 26 | 17 | 2 | 7 | 18 | 53 |
| 2 | Melbourne Knights | 26 | 16 | 4 | 6 | 25 | 52 |
| 3 | Northcote City | 26 | 15 | 4 | 7 | 15 | 49 |
| 4 | Bulleen Lions | 26 | 14 | 6 | 6 | 18 | 48 |
| 5 | Melbourne Victory II | 26 | 14 | 4 | 8 | 23 | 46 |
| 6 | Eltham Redbacks FC | 26 | 11 | 6 | 9 | 17 | 39 |
| 7 | Melbourne Srbija | 26 | 12 | 3 | 11 | 4 | 39 |
| 8 | Brunswick City | 26 | 10 | 3 | 13 | -2 | 33 |
| 9 | North Geelong Warriors | 26 | 10 | 2 | 14 | -15 | 32 |
| 10 | Langwarrin | 26 | 8 | 6 | 12 | -8 | 30 |
| 11 | Manningham United Blues | 26 | 9 | 3 | 14 | -20 | 30 |
| 12 | North Sunshine Eagles | 26 | 7 | 5 | 14 | -5 | 26 |
| 13 | Western United II | 26 | 8 | 1 | 17 | -26 | 25 |
| 14 | Port Melbourne | 26 | 4 | 5 | 17 | -44 | 17 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 79% and over 2.5 goals at 81%.
A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.