· Analysis updated 09:02 UTC
Westlandia vs Excelsior Maassluis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.06 expected goals for Westlandia and 1.79 for Excelsior Maassluis, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Excelsior Maassluis the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Excelsior Maassluis win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
1.06 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Westlandia home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Excelsior Maassluis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Excelsior Maassluis to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 23% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.06 goals for Westlandia and 1.79 for Excelsior Maassluis, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
78%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Westlandia
- 2025-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Lisse · 0-1 (L)
- 2025-08-05T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Excelsior Maassluis · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-06-01T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Achilles Veen · 0-2 (L)
- 2024-05-29T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Achilles Veen · 0-3 (L)
- 2023-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RKAV Volendam · 0-3 (L)
Excelsior Maassluis
- 2026-10-24T12:30:00.000Z · H vs EVV · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Zwaluwen · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T12:30:00.000Z · H vs TOGB · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Vvsb · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Blauw Geel · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Excelsior Maassluis win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.