Rockwell Automation Park · Analysis updated 15:18 UTC
Weston Bears vs Adamstown Rosebuds Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.20 expected goals for Weston Bears and 1.75 for Adamstown Rosebuds, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Weston Bears the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 73% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Weston Bears win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
2.20 – 1.75
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Weston Bears home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Adamstown Rosebuds away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Weston Bears to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 20% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.20 goals for Weston Bears and 1.75 for Adamstown Rosebuds, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.2%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Weston Bears
- 2026-09-13T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Maitland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Broadmeadow Magic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Valentine · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 4-2 (W)
Adamstown Rosebuds
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Belmont Swansea · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston Bears · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Cooks Hill United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-01T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Valentine · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-11T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Weston Bears win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 73% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.