Rockwell Automation Park · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Weston Bears vs Belmont Swansea Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.59 expected goals for Weston Bears and 1.66 for Belmont Swansea, a combined total of 4.25. That distribution gives Weston Bears the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 80% for over 2.5 goals and 75% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Weston Bears win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
2.59 – 1.66
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Weston Bears home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Belmont Swansea away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Weston Bears to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.59 goals for Weston Bears and 1.66 for Belmont Swansea, a combined 4.25 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.9%
- 3–16.9%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–16.1%
- 3–25.7%
Recent form
Weston Bears
- 2026-09-13T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Maitland · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T06:00:00.000Z · A vs Broadmeadow Magic · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Maitland · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Valentine · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 4-2 (W)
Belmont Swansea
- 2026-08-23T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-16T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Adamstown Rosebuds · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-08T06:30:00.000Z · H vs Lambton Jaffas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-02T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Edgeworth Eagles · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-07-26T05:00:00.000Z · A vs Kahibah · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Northern NSW NPL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broadmeadow Magic | 22 | 15 | 4 | 3 | 36 | 49 |
| 2 | Maitland | 22 | 13 | 3 | 6 | 8 | 42 |
| 3 | Weston Bears | 22 | 12 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 41 |
| 4 | Edgeworth Eagles | 22 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 10 | 39 |
| 5 | Belmont Swansea | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 35 |
| 6 | Cooks Hill United | 22 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 7 | 33 |
| 7 | Valentine | 22 | 7 | 5 | 10 | -17 | 26 |
| 8 | Lambton Jaffas | 22 | 7 | 4 | 11 | 5 | 25 |
| 9 | Adamstown Rosebuds | 22 | 6 | 6 | 10 | -11 | 24 |
| 10 | Hamilton Olympic | 22 | 5 | 6 | 11 | -1 | 21 |
| 11 | Kahibah | 22 | 6 | 2 | 14 | -18 | 20 |
| 12 | Charlestown City Blues | 22 | 4 | 2 | 16 | -37 | 14 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Weston Bears win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 75% and over 2.5 goals at 80%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.