The Optima Stadium · Analysis updated 14:46 UTC
Weston-super-Mare vs Dagenham & Redbridge Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Weston-super-Mare and 1.28 for Dagenham & Redbridge, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Weston-super-Mare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.4% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.28
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Weston-super-Mare home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dagenham & Redbridge away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Weston-super-Mare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 38% / 26% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.33 goals for Weston-super-Mare and 1.28 for Dagenham & Redbridge, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
62%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.5%
- 1–09.8%
- 0–19.5%
- 2–18.3%
- 1–28.0%
Recent form
Weston-super-Mare
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ebbsfleet United · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Folkestone Invicta · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wimborne Town · 1-1 (D)
Dagenham & Redbridge
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hampton & Richmond · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Waltham Abbey · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Waltham Abbey · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston-super-Mare · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dover · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
National League - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maidstone Utd | 13 | 8 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 26 |
| 2 | Ebbsfleet United | 11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 25 |
| 3 | Truro City | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 10 | 24 |
| 4 | Dagenham & Redbridge | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 5 | Salisbury | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 22 |
| 6 | Billericay Town | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 21 |
| 7 | Tonbridge Angels | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 21 |
| 8 | Dorking Wanderers | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Farnham Town | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 7 | 20 |
| 10 | Folkestone Invicta | 13 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 19 |
| 11 | Dover | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 19 |
| 12 | Weston-super-Mare | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 13 | Horsham | 13 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 18 |
| 14 | Torquay | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 15 | Chelmsford City | 11 | 2 | 9 | 0 | 6 | 15 |
| 16 | Hemel Hempstead Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -3 | 14 |
| 17 | Farnborough | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -9 | 14 |
| 18 | Maidenhead | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -5 | 13 |
| 19 | AFC Totton | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 13 |
| 20 | Chesham United | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 10 |
| 21 | Braintree | 12 | 3 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 10 |
| 22 | Hampton & Richmond | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -16 | 8 |
| 23 | Walton & Hersham | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -18 | 8 |
| 24 | Slough Town | 13 | 1 | 1 | 11 | -21 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.