· Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Wettswil-Bonstetten vs Winterthur II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for Wettswil-Bonstetten and 1.01 for Winterthur II, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Wettswil-Bonstetten the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
70.0% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.01
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wettswil-Bonstetten home form
6 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Winterthur II away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wettswil-Bonstetten to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 29% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.24 goals for Wettswil-Bonstetten and 1.01 for Winterthur II, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–110.6%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 13.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.00 (model 54.8% vs market 45.9%, edge +8.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.00 | 45.9% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +8.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.35 | 69.4% | 70.0% | 1.43 | +0.6 |
| Match result | Home | 2.15 | 41.0% | 41.5% | 2.41 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 28.4% | 28.5% | 3.51 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.60 | 58.5% | 58.5% | 1.71 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 2.88 | 30.6% | 30.0% | 3.33 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.1% | 71.5% | 1.40 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.70 | 54.1% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -8.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Wettswil-Bonstetten
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Mendrisio · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosova · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Thalwil · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Baden · 1-3 (L)
Winterthur II
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wettswil-Bonstetten · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Taverne | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Baden | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Kosova | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Collina d'Oro | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Eschen / Mauren | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Locarno | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Freienbach | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 13 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 14 | Winterthur II | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -8 | 9 |
| 15 | Mendrisio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Widnau | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 70.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.