· Analysis updated 17:18 UTC
Weymouth Wales vs St. Andrew Lions Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Weymouth Wales and 0.63 for St. Andrew Lions, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Weymouth Wales the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Weymouth Wales win
81.6% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 0.63
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Weymouth Wales home form
9 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
St. Andrew Lions away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
18%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.9%
- 3–011.9%
- 1–09.4%
- 4–08.2%
- 2–18.1%
Recent form
Weymouth Wales
- 2026-07-28T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Britannia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-29T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Pride of Gall Hill · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-05-25T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Kick Start · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-18T00:00:00.000Z · H vs UWI Blackbirds · 1-0 (W)
St. Andrew Lions
- 2026-05-26T23:00:00.000Z · A vs UWI Blackbirds · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-05-17T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Kick Start · 0-23 (L)
- 2026-05-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Ellerton · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-05-05T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Brittons Hill · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Paradise · 1-7 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-13T00:00:00.000Z · Weymouth Wales 2-1 St. Andrew Lions (Premier League)
- 2026-01-28T01:00:00.000Z · Weymouth Wales 0-0 St. Andrew Lions (Premier League)
- 2023-07-26T01:00:00.000Z · Weymouth Wales 2-0 St. Andrew Lions (Premier League)
- 2023-03-03T01:00:00.000Z · Weymouth Wales 8-0 St. Andrew Lions (Premier League)
- 2020-03-15T01:00:00.000Z · Weymouth Wales 2-3 St. Andrew Lions (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weymouth Wales | 18 | 16 | 1 | 1 | 56 | 49 |
| 2 | Brittons Hill | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 20 | 33 |
| 3 | Ellerton | 18 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 |
| 4 | UWI Blackbirds | 18 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 14 | 29 |
| 5 | Pride of Gall Hill | 18 | 7 | 6 | 5 | -1 | 27 |
| 6 | Kick Start | 18 | 6 | 3 | 9 | -4 | 21 |
| 7 | Paradise | 18 | 5 | 5 | 8 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Wotton | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | -12 | 18 |
| 9 | Deacons | 18 | 5 | 2 | 11 | -31 | 17 |
| 10 | Silver Sands | 18 | 0 | 1 | 17 | -59 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Weymouth Wales win, at 81.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.