· Analysis updated 21:48 UTC
Widnau vs Eschen / Mauren Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Widnau and 1.00 for Eschen / Mauren, a combined total of 2.40. That distribution gives Widnau the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 43% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Widnau win
46.1% probability
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Widnau home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Eschen / Mauren away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Widnau to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 27% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Widnau and 1.00 for Eschen / Mauren, a combined 2.40 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–09.1%
- 0–19.1%
- 2–08.9%
Recent form
Widnau
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Gossau · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Taverne · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Winterthur II · 1-0 (W)
Eschen / Mauren
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-10-07T17:45:00.000Z · A vs Freienbach · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Mendrisio · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kosova · 0-5 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-26T12:00:00.000Z · Widnau 0-0 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
- 2025-10-22T18:00:00.000Z · Widnau 1-2 Eschen / Mauren (1. Liga Classic - Group 3)
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 25 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 3 | Taverne | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 13 | 21 |
| 4 | Baden | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 19 |
| 5 | Thalwil | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 6 | Collina d'Oro | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 7 | Kosova | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Eschen / Mauren | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -4 | 12 |
| 12 | Locarno | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Freienbach | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 14 | Mendrisio | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 15 | Winterthur II | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 16 | Widnau | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -19 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Widnau win, at 46.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 43%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.