· Analysis updated 08:38 UTC
Wieczysta Kraków vs Ruch Chorzów Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.85 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined total of 3.38. That distribution gives Ruch Chorzów the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 66% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Ruch Chorzów win
45.5% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wieczysta Kraków home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ruch Chorzów away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ruch Chorzów to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 32% / 22% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Wieczysta Kraków and 1.85 for Ruch Chorzów, a combined 3.38 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.7%
- 1–28.9%
- 2–17.4%
- 2–26.8%
- 0–16.3%
Recent form
Wieczysta Kraków
- 2026-10-25T11:15:00.000Z · A vs Slask Wroclaw · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Raków Częstochowa · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-12T18:30:00.000Z · A vs GKS Katowice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisla Plock · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 4-3 (W)
Ruch Chorzów
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń Grod. Mazowiecki · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-16T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs ŁKS Łódź · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Polonia Bytom · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-10T09:00:00.000Z · Wieczysta Kraków 2-0 Ruch Chorzów (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-04-11T17:30:00.000Z · Wieczysta Kraków 2-0 Ruch Chorzów (I Liga)
- 2025-09-28T12:30:00.000Z · Wieczysta Kraków 4-2 Ruch Chorzów (I Liga)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ruch Chorzów win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 66%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.