England · League One · Regular Season - 511:30
WiganL

11:30 UTC

Saturday, 5 September 2026

The Brick Community Stadium · Analysis updated 23:44 UTC

Wigan vs Stockport County Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.74 expected goals for Wigan and 1.92 for Stockport County, a combined total of 3.66. That distribution gives Stockport County the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 70% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws roughly 57% of the time.

Model pick

Stockport County or Draw

64.6% probability

Moderate confidence

Expected goals

1.74 – 1.92

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Match result (1X2)

Wigan win35%
Draw22%
Stockport County win43%

Double chance 1X

57%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%
Over 2.5 goals71%
Over 3.5 goals50%
Both teams to score70%

Correct score

  • 1–18.6%
  • 1–28.3%
  • 2–17.5%
  • 2–27.2%
  • 1–35.3%

Why the model likes this

  • Most likely outcome

    The model rates Stockport County to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 35% / 22% / 43% for home, draw and away.

  • Expected goals balance

    Projected 1.74 goals for Wigan and 1.92 for Stockport County, a combined 3.66 — an open game on paper.

  • Goals markets

    Over 2.5 goals lands at 71% and both teams to score at 70%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

  • Model confidence

    Stockport County or Draw is the headline pick at 65% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.

Recent form

Wigan

    Stockport County

      Head-to-head

      Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

      League One table

      Full league page →
      #TeamPWDLGDPts
      1Huddersfield110033
      2Stockport County110023
      3Bradford110023
      4Luton110013
      5Cambridge United110013
      6Sheffield Wednesday110013
      7Mansfield Town110013
      8Bromley110013
      9Milton Keynes Dons101001
      10Oxford United101001
      11Blackpool101001
      12Leicester101001
      13Wycombe101001
      14Notts County101001
      15Burton Albion101001
      16Stevenage101001
      17Reading1001-10
      18Wigan1001-10
      19Doncaster1001-10
      20Leyton Orient1001-10
      21Barnsley1001-10
      22Plymouth1001-20
      23Peterborough1001-20
      24AFC Wimbledon1001-30

      Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.