The Brick Community Stadium · Referee D. Whitestone · Analysis updated 14:36 UTC
Wigan vs Wycombe Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.27 expected goals for Wigan and 1.08 for Wycombe, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Wigan the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.5% probability
Expected goals
1.27 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wigan home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Wycombe away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.1%
- 0–110.3%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–18.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 52.5% vs market 40.6%, edge +11.9 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 40.6% | 52.5% | 1.90 | +11.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.1% | 68.5% | 1.46 | +1.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.25 | 40.6% | 40.7% | 2.46 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 27.7% | 27.8% | 3.60 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.30 | 72.3% | 72.1% | 1.39 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 2.88 | 31.7% | 31.4% | 3.18 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.55 | 60.6% | 59.2% | 1.69 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.57 | 59.4% | 47.5% | 2.11 | -11.9 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Wigan
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stevenage · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackpool · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Wednesday · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Stockport County · 0-4 (L)
Wycombe
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Reading · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Chelsea U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Dons · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Wigan 0-1 Wycombe (League One)
- 2026-01-27T19:45:00.000Z · Wigan 0-2 Wycombe (League One)
- 2025-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · Wigan 0-1 Wycombe (League One)
- 2025-09-23T18:45:00.000Z · Wigan 0-2 Wycombe (League Cup)
- 2025-02-22T15:00:00.000Z · Wigan 0-0 Wycombe (League One)
- 2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Wigan 0-1 Wycombe (League One)
- 2024-03-12T19:45:00.000Z · Wigan 0-1 Wycombe (League One)
- 2024-01-23T19:45:00.000Z · Wigan 1-0 Wycombe (League One)
- 2022-02-22T19:45:00.000Z · Wigan 3-1 Wycombe (League One)
- 2021-08-17T18:45:00.000Z · Wigan 1-1 Wycombe (League One)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.