· Analysis updated 06:04 UTC
Wigry Suwałki vs Nieciecza Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Wigry Suwałki and 1.49 for Nieciecza, a combined total of 3.49. That distribution gives Wigry Suwałki the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wigry Suwałki win
49.6% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wigry Suwałki home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Nieciecza away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wigry Suwałki to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 22% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Wigry Suwałki and 1.49 for Nieciecza, a combined 3.49 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.1%
Recent form
Wigry Suwałki
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Weszlo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Pelikan Łowicz · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisła Płock II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 2-0 (W)
Nieciecza
- 2026-10-24T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Arka Gdynia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Puszcza Niepołomice · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Unia Skierniewice · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Cracovia Krakow · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Odra Opole · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wigry Suwałki win, at 49.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.