Wilhelmshaven vs Bersenbrück Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.05 expected goals for Wilhelmshaven and 0.98 for Bersenbrück, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Wilhelmshaven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wilhelmshaven win

62.1% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.05 – 0.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wilhelmshaven home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Bersenbrück away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wilhelmshaven to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 21% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.05 goals for Wilhelmshaven and 0.98 for Bersenbrück, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wilhelmshaven win62%

Draw21%

Bersenbrück win17%

Double chance 1X

83%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals81%

Over 2.5 goals58%

Over 3.5 goals36%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

2–010.2%
2–19.9%
1–09.9%
1–19.7%
3–06.9%

Recent form

Wilhelmshaven

2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drochtersen/Assel II · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Verden 04 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Vorsfelde · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Nordhorn · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-28T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Spelle-Venhaus · 0-1 (L)

Bersenbrück

2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Nordhorn · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Germania Egestorf · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hemmingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Lüneburger SK Hansa · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Meppen II · 5-0 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Niedersachsen table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Heeslinger SC	10	6	3	1	17	21
2	Eintracht Braunschw. II	10	6	2	2	15	20
3	Wilhelmshaven	9	6	2	1	13	20
4	Schwarz-Weiß Rehden	9	6	2	1	10	20
5	Borussia Hildesheim	9	6	1	2	7	19
6	Spelle-Venhaus	9	5	3	1	7	18
7	BW Lohne	9	4	2	3	4	14
8	Bersenbrück	9	4	1	4	2	13
9	Meppen II	10	4	1	5	-3	13
10	Nordhorn	10	3	2	5	-13	11
11	Verden 04	10	2	4	4	-2	10
12	Germania Egestorf	9	2	2	5	-9	8
13	Hemmingen	9	2	1	6	-15	7
14	Lüneburger SK Hansa	9	0	6	3	-3	6
15	Vorsfelde	10	1	2	7	-17	5
16	Drochtersen/Assel II	9	1	0	8	-13	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wilhelmshaven win, at 62.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.