Wiliete vs Académica do Lobito Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.27 expected goals for Wiliete and 0.31 for Académica do Lobito, a combined total of 2.59. That distribution gives Wiliete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 14%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 24% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wiliete win

82.2% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.27 – 0.31

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wiliete home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Académica do Lobito away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiliete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 82%, against 82% / 14% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.27 goals for Wiliete and 0.31 for Académica do Lobito, a combined 2.59 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wiliete win82%

Draw14%

Académica do Lobito win4%

Double chance 1X

96%

Double chance 12

86%

Double chance X2

18%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score24%

Correct score

2–019.5%
1–017.1%
3–014.7%
4–08.4%
0–07.5%

Recent form

Wiliete

2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Foresters · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Foresters · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Huíla · 1-0 (W)

Académica do Lobito

2026-08-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 0-2 (L)
2026-08-23T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-2 (L)
2026-05-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Interclube · 0-0 (D)
2026-05-20T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petro de Luanda · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo do Libolo · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
5	Interclube	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	3	0	4	-5	9
9	São Salvador	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	0	4	3	-5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	0	3	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wiliete win, at 82.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 24% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.