Wiliete vs Recreativo do Libolo Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.62 expected goals for Wiliete and 0.58 for Recreativo do Libolo, a combined total of 3.20. That distribution gives Wiliete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 81%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 81% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wiliete win

80.8% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.62 – 0.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wiliete home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Recreativo do Libolo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiliete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 81%, against 81% / 13% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.62 goals for Wiliete and 0.58 for Recreativo do Libolo, a combined 3.20 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wiliete win81%

Draw13%

Recreativo do Libolo win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

87%

Double chance X2

19%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals40%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

2–013.9%
3–012.2%
1–010.7%
2–18.1%
4–08.0%

Recent form

Wiliete

2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Foresters · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Foresters · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Huíla · 1-0 (W)

Recreativo do Libolo

2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Wiliete · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Maio · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bravos do Maquis FC · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-26T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Petro de Luanda · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Bravos do Maquis FC	7	4	2	1	5	14
4	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
5	Interclube	7	4	1	2	3	13
6	Desportivo Huíla	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	Sagrada Esperança	7	3	2	2	2	11
8	Recreativo do Libolo	7	3	0	4	-5	9
9	São Salvador	7	2	2	3	-2	8
10	1º de Maio	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	CD Lunda-Sul	7	1	4	2	-1	7
12	Recreativo da Caála	7	1	3	3	-2	6
13	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
14	FC Luanda	8	1	2	5	-6	5
15	Sporting de Cabinda	7	0	4	3	-5	4
16	Académica do Lobito	8	0	3	5	-9	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wiliete win, at 80.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 81% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.