Wiliete vs Sporting de Cabinda Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Wiliete and 0.38 for Sporting de Cabinda, a combined total of 2.38. That distribution gives Wiliete the largest share of the 1X2 market at 76%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 27% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 76% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Wiliete win

76.4% probability

High confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.00 – 0.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wiliete home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sporting de Cabinda away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiliete to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 76%, against 76% / 18% / 6% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Wiliete and 0.38 for Sporting de Cabinda, a combined 2.38 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Wiliete win76%

Draw18%

Sporting de Cabinda win6%

Double chance 1X

94%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

24%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals69%

Over 2.5 goals42%

Over 3.5 goals22%

Both teams to score27%

Correct score

1–018.6%
2–018.6%
3–012.4%
0–09.3%
1–17.0%

Recent form

Wiliete

2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Luanda · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Foresters · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Foresters · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-31T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Desportivo Huíla · 1-0 (W)

Sporting de Cabinda

2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs São Salvador · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-09T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1º de Agosto · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC Luanda · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Desportivo Huíla · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Recreativo do Libolo · 0-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Girabola table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Wiliete	6	5	1	0	11	16
2	Petro de Luanda	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	1º de Agosto	6	4	2	0	4	14
4	Bravos do Maquis FC	6	4	1	1	5	13
5	Interclube	6	3	1	2	2	10
6	Desportivo Huíla	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Recreativo do Libolo	6	3	0	3	-4	9
8	1º de Maio	6	2	2	2	1	8
9	Sagrada Esperança	5	2	1	2	-1	7
10	CD Lunda-Sul	6	1	3	2	-1	6
11	Kabuscorp	7	1	3	3	-2	6
12	Recreativo da Caála	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	São Salvador	6	1	2	3	-3	5
14	FC Luanda	6	1	1	4	-4	4
15	Sporting de Cabinda	6	0	3	3	-5	3
16	Académica do Lobito	6	0	1	5	-9	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wiliete win, at 76.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 27% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.

A 76% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.