Koning Willem II Stadion · Analysis updated 15:31 UTC
Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Willem II and 2.00 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.08. That distribution gives Cambuur the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 59% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Cambuur win
58.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Willem II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cambuur away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–19.2%
- 0–29.2%
- 1–36.6%
Recent form
Willem II
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Excelsior · 0-3 (L)
Cambuur
- 2026-10-11T12:30:00.000Z · A vs PEC Zwolle · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs ADO Den Haag · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · H vs NEC Nijmegen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Telstar · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Twente · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-12T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 0-1 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-09-06T18:00:00.000Z · Willem II 2-2 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-02-02T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 1-1 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-09-17T14:45:00.000Z · Willem II 0-1 Cambuur (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-05-11T18:00:00.000Z · Willem II 1-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2021-12-10T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 1-3 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2016-04-21T16:30:00.000Z · Willem II 1-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2015-12-06T11:30:00.000Z · Willem II 3-0 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
- 2015-05-17T12:30:00.000Z · Willem II 2-1 Cambuur (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 20 | 20 |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 10 | 19 |
| 4 | Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 12 | 15 |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 7 | Fortuna Sittard | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 9 | Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 10 | Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 8 |
| 13 | Utrecht | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 15 | Telstar | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 16 | PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -15 | 4 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -10 | 3 |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -16 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cambuur win, at 58.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 59%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.