· Analysis updated 06:05 UTC
Willem II vs FC Eindhoven Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.80 expected goals for Willem II and 1.88 for FC Eindhoven, a combined total of 2.68. That distribution gives FC Eindhoven the largest share of the 1X2 market at 63%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 63% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Eindhoven win
62.8% probability
Expected goals
0.80 – 1.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Willem II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Eindhoven away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
37%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
85%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.9%
- 0–212.1%
- 1–110.3%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–37.6%
Recent form
Willem II
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
FC Eindhoven
- 2026-08-21T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Den Bosch · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:00:00.000Z · H vs MVV · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-10T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Jong AZ · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · A vs SK Beveren · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-11T09:00:00.000Z · Willem II 2-2 FC Eindhoven (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-01-18T15:45:00.000Z · Willem II 2-0 FC Eindhoven (Eerste Divisie)
- 2025-08-17T14:45:00.000Z · Willem II 0-1 FC Eindhoven (Eerste Divisie)
- 2024-03-08T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 3-0 FC Eindhoven (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-08-13T10:15:00.000Z · Willem II 1-1 FC Eindhoven (Eerste Divisie)
- 2023-07-15T11:00:00.000Z · Willem II 4-0 FC Eindhoven (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-02-06T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 3-0 FC Eindhoven (Eerste Divisie)
- 2022-10-18T16:45:00.000Z · Willem II 0-1 FC Eindhoven (KNVB Beker)
- 2022-08-12T18:00:00.000Z · Willem II 1-2 FC Eindhoven (Eerste Divisie)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Eindhoven win, at 62.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.
A 63% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.