Koning Willem II Stadion · Analysis updated 21:50 UTC
Willem II vs Sparta Rotterdam Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Willem II and 2.13 for Sparta Rotterdam, a combined total of 3.85. That distribution gives Sparta Rotterdam the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Sparta Rotterdam win
47.4% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 2.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Willem II home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sparta Rotterdam away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
53%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–17.8%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.7%
- 1–35.9%
Recent form
Willem II
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Rotterdam · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Utrecht · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Fortuna Sittard · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ajax · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AZ Alkmaar · 1-1 (D)
Sparta Rotterdam
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Willem II · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · A vs GO Ahead Eagles · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Heerenveen · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-13T18:00:00.000Z · A vs PSV Eindhoven · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs PEC Zwolle · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2025-12-18T20:00:00.000Z · Willem II 1-5 Sparta Rotterdam (KNVB Beker)
- 2025-07-26T11:00:00.000Z · Willem II 3-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-03-02T15:45:00.000Z · Willem II 0-4 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-08-31T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 1-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2024-07-27T11:00:00.000Z · Willem II 2-4 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2023-07-29T11:00:00.000Z · Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-07-20T11:00:00.000Z · Willem II 0-2 Sparta Rotterdam (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2022-02-13T11:15:00.000Z · Willem II 0-1 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
- 2021-11-06T19:00:00.000Z · Willem II 0-3 Sparta Rotterdam (Eredivisie)
Eredivisie table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 21 | 24 |
| 2 | AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 20 |
| 3 | PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 15 | 20 |
| 4 | Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 15 | 18 |
| 5 | Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 7 | Heerenveen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 8 | Groningen | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 |
| 9 | GO Ahead Eagles | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| 10 | Cambuur | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 12 |
| 11 | Utrecht | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -10 | 12 |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 | Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 15 | PEC Zwolle | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 16 | Telstar | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 18 | Willem II | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | -22 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Sparta Rotterdam win, at 47.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.