· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Wiltz vs AS Eupen Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Wiltz and 1.79 for AS Eupen, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives AS Eupen the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
AS Eupen win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.79
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wiltz home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AS Eupen away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates AS Eupen to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 32% / 23% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Wiltz and 1.79 for AS Eupen, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
68%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.0%
- 1–29.0%
- 2–17.4%
- 0–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
Recent form
Wiltz
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 0-9 (L)
AS Eupen
- 2026-10-09T18:00:00.000Z · A vs RSC Anderlecht II · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-01T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Alemannia Aachen · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Merelbeke · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Liège · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Patro Eisden · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is AS Eupen win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.