Stade Am Petz · Analysis updated 15:29 UTC
Wiltz vs FC Differdange 03 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Wiltz and 2.98 for FC Differdange 03, a combined total of 4.01. That distribution gives FC Differdange 03 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
FC Differdange 03 win
76.8% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 2.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wiltz home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Differdange 03 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.3%
- 1–38.2%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–38.1%
- 1–46.1%
Recent form
Wiltz
- 2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · H vs FC Differdange 03 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Swift Hesperange · 7-2 (W)
- 2026-08-01T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs AS Eupen · 0-9 (L)
FC Differdange 03
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jeunesse Useldange · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Swift Hesperange · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Hostert · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-2 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2025-05-14T18:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 0-3 FC Differdange 03 (Cup)
- 2025-05-10T15:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 0-4 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2024-12-01T14:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-4 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2024-05-18T16:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-1 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2023-12-09T15:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-1 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2023-04-22T16:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-2 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2022-11-13T14:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-2 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2022-03-20T15:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 1-3 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
- 2021-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Wiltz 2-1 FC Differdange 03 (National Division)
National Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UNA Strassen | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 27 |
| 2 | FC Differdange 03 | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 20 | 24 |
| 3 | UN Kaerjeng 97 | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 21 |
| 4 | US Mondorf-les-bains | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 21 |
| 5 | Progres Niederkorn | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 19 |
| 6 | Racing FC Union Luxembourg | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 18 |
| 7 | Atert Bissen | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 16 |
| 8 | Résidence Walferdange | 9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 15 |
| 9 | US Hostert | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | F91 Dudelange | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 11 | Victoria Rosport | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -6 | 8 |
| 12 | AS Jeunesse Esch | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -6 | 7 |
| 13 | US Rumelange | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 6 |
| 14 | Etzella Ettelbruck | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 5 |
| 15 | Wiltz | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 4 |
| 16 | Swift Hesperange | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -31 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is FC Differdange 03 win, at 76.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.