Stade Am Petz · Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Wiltz vs Marisca Mersch Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.00 expected goals for Wiltz and 3.00 for Marisca Mersch, a combined total of 7.00. That distribution gives Wiltz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 95% for over 2.5 goals and 91% for both teams to score, with 3–2 the single most likely scoreline at 4%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wiltz win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
4.00 – 3.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wiltz home form
0 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Marisca Mersch away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiltz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 15% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.00 goals for Wiltz and 3.00 for Marisca Mersch, a combined 7.00 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–24.4%
- 3–34.4%
- 4–24.4%
- 4–34.4%
- 5–23.5%
Recent form
Wiltz
- 2026-10-18T14:00:00.000Z · A vs US Mondorf-les-bains · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs UNA Strassen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sandweiler · 6-2 (W)
- 2026-09-16T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Atert Bissen · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Progres Niederkorn · 1-2 (L)
Marisca Mersch
- 2026-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Victoria Rosport · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-18T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Etzella Ettelbruck · 2-2 (D)
- 2025-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wiltz · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · A vs ALSS Luxembourg · 4-2 (W)
- 2024-11-10T15:00:00.000Z · A vs UN Kaerjeng 97 · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wiltz win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 91% and over 2.5 goals at 95%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.