· Analysis updated 14:50 UTC
Wimborne Town vs Weston-super-Mare Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Wimborne Town and 1.07 for Weston-super-Mare, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Wimborne Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wimborne Town win
51.5% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wimborne Town home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Weston-super-Mare away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wimborne Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Wimborne Town and 1.07 for Weston-super-Mare, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 1–010.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–16.9%
Recent form
Wimborne Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crowborough Athletic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Yate Town · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Moneyfields · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Weston-super-Mare · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Weston-super-Mare · 1-1 (D)
Weston-super-Mare
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Farnham Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wimborne Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Wimborne Town · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dagenham & Redbridge · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Totton · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wimborne Town win, at 51.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.