· Analysis updated 13:25 UTC
Winterthur II vs Freienbach Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Winterthur II and 1.10 for Freienbach, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Winterthur II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Winterthur II win
52.6% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Winterthur II home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Freienbach away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Winterthur II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 24% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Winterthur II and 1.10 for Freienbach, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 1–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 2–08.9%
- 0–16.4%
Recent form
Winterthur II
- 2026-10-09T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Wettswil-Bonstetten · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St. Gallen II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Freienbach · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Collina d'Oro · 0-1 (L)
Freienbach
- 2026-10-07T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Eschen / Mauren · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Widnau · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Winterthur II · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Collina d'Oro · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mendrisio · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. Liga Classic - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Gallen II | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 22 |
| 2 | Tuggen | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 21 |
| 3 | Taverne | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 13 | 20 |
| 4 | Thalwil | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 5 | Baden | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 16 |
| 6 | Kosova | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 7 | Collina d'Oro | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 15 |
| 8 | Dietikon | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Gossau | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 14 |
| 10 | Locarno | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | Freienbach | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 12 | Wettswil-Bonstetten | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 9 |
| 13 | Winterthur II | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 14 | Eschen / Mauren | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 9 |
| 15 | Mendrisio | 10 | 1 | 5 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Widnau | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -13 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Winterthur II win, at 52.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.