Wisła Kraków II vs Korona Kielce II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Wisła Kraków II and 1.61 for Korona Kielce II, a combined total of 3.76. That distribution gives Wisła Kraków II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 72% for over 2.5 goals and 71% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Wisła Kraków II win

50.3% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.15 – 1.61

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wisła Kraków II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Korona Kielce II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wisła Kraków II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 50% / 21% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Wisła Kraków II and 1.61 for Korona Kielce II, a combined 3.76 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wisła Kraków II win50%

Draw21%

Korona Kielce II win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

50%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals72%

Over 3.5 goals52%

Both teams to score71%

Correct score

2–18.7%
1–18.1%
2–27.0%
1–26.5%
3–16.2%

Recent form

Wisła Kraków II

2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-04T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-25T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 0-1 (L)

Korona Kielce II

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T09:00:00.000Z · H vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisłoka Dębica · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Sokół Kolb. · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Jarosław · 2-6 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	10	4	0	16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	8	5	1	15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Naprzód	14	7	3	4	3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wisła Kraków II win, at 50.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 71% and over 2.5 goals at 72%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.