Orlen Arena · Analysis updated 08:01 UTC
Wisła Płock II vs Jagiellonia II Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.29 expected goals for Wisła Płock II and 1.61 for Jagiellonia II, a combined total of 3.91. That distribution gives Wisła Płock II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wisła Płock II win
53.1% probability
Expected goals
2.29 – 1.61
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wisła Płock II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jagiellonia II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wisła Płock II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 20% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.29 goals for Wisła Płock II and 1.61 for Jagiellonia II, a combined 3.91 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.5%
- 1–17.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 3–16.5%
- 1–26.0%
Recent form
Wisła Płock II
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Widzew II · 2-0 (W)
Jagiellonia II
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Swit · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Troszyn · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Płock II · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs ŁKS Łódź II · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Weszlo | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 32 |
| 2 | Wigry Suwałki | 13 | 8 | 4 | 1 | 14 | 28 |
| 3 | Swit | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 23 |
| 4 | Pelikan Łowicz | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Mazovia Minsk Mazowiecki | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Wisła Płock II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 7 | Ząbkovia Ząbki | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Warta Sieradz | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 9 | Olimpia Zambrów | 13 | 6 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 20 |
| 10 | Olimpia Elbląg | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 17 |
| 11 | Jagiellonia II | 13 | 4 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 12 | Widzew II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | 0 | 15 |
| 13 | ŁKS Łódź II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Lechia T. Mazowiecki | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Mławianka Mława | 13 | 4 | 1 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 16 | Polonia Lidzbark Warm. | 13 | 3 | 3 | 7 | -6 | 12 |
| 17 | Troszyn | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 11 |
| 18 | Łomża | 13 | 0 | 3 | 10 | -18 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wisła Płock II win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.