Orlen Stadion · Analysis updated 05:08 UTC
Wisła Płock II vs Puszcza Niepołomice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Wisła Płock II and 1.37 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined total of 3.13. That distribution gives Wisła Płock II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wisła Płock II win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.37
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wisła Płock II home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Puszcza Niepołomice away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wisła Płock II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 23% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Wisła Płock II and 1.37 for Puszcza Niepołomice, a combined 3.13 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.5%
- 2–19.3%
- 1–07.7%
- 1–27.2%
- 2–06.8%
Recent form
Wisła Płock II
- 2026-10-24T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ząbkovia Ząbki · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Warta Sieradz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Troszyn · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigry Suwałki · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Jagiellonia II · 2-1 (W)
Puszcza Niepołomice
- 2026-10-24T15:45:00.000Z · H vs Lechia Gdansk · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Nieciecza · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-15T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Pogoń Siedlce · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Bytom · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wieczysta Kraków · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wisła Płock II win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.