· Analysis updated 12:38 UTC
Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Czarni Połaniec Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice and 1.07 for Czarni Połaniec, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Wiślanie Jaśkowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win
47.9% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Czarni Połaniec away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.4%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.7%
- 0–17.9%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.30 (model 48.5% vs market 39.9%, edge +8.6 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.30 | 39.9% | 48.5% | 2.06 | +8.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.83 | 50.9% | 52.1% | 1.92 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.50 | 25.3% | 25.6% | 3.91 | +0.3 |
| Match result | Home | 1.85 | 47.9% | 47.9% | 2.09 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 74.5% | 74.4% | 1.34 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 3.30 | 26.8% | 26.5% | 3.77 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.25 | 74.5% | 73.5% | 1.36 | -1.0 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.53 | 60.1% | 51.5% | 1.94 | -8.6 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 0-1 (L)
Czarni Połaniec
- 2026-10-24T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Busko-Zdroj · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Chełmianka Chełm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Hetman Zamosc · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0-1 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
- 2026-05-09T15:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0-1 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
- 2025-10-18T11:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0-2 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
- 2025-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1-2 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 0-0 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
- 2024-03-30T11:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1-2 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
- 2023-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · Wiślanie Jaśkowice 1-2 Czarni Połaniec (III Liga - Group 4)
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 34 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 14 | 8 | 5 | 1 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Naprzód | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 24 |
| 5 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 9 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 10 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 14 | 3 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | -3 | 16 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 14 | 2 | 3 | 9 | -11 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wiślanie Jaśkowice win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.