Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Jarosław Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice and 1.80 for Jarosław, a combined total of 3.18. That distribution gives Jarosław the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Jarosław win

47.6% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.38 – 1.80

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wiślanie Jaśkowice home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jarosław away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Jarosław to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 30% / 23% / 48% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice and 1.80 for Jarosław, a combined 3.18 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wiślanie Jaśkowice win30%

Draw23%

Jarosław win48%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

71%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals83%

Over 2.5 goals62%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.3%
1–29.3%
0–17.5%
2–17.1%
0–26.8%

Recent form

Wiślanie Jaśkowice

2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 0-1 (L)

Jarosław

2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs KSZO 1929 · 1-3 (L)
2026-10-10T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Wisła Kraków II · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Naprzód · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Moravia Morawica · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów · 5-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 4 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Chełmianka Chełm	14	10	4	0	16	34
2	KSZO 1929	14	8	5	1	15	29
3	Wisłoka Dębica	14	8	2	4	5	26
4	Naprzód	14	7	3	4	3	24
5	Czarni Połaniec	14	7	3	4	2	24
6	Wiślanie Jaśkowice	14	6	3	5	6	21
7	Hetman Zamosc	13	5	5	3	3	20
8	Siarka Tarnobrzeg	14	6	2	6	1	20
9	Wisła Kraków II	14	5	4	5	-1	19
10	Jarosław	13	5	2	6	4	17
11	Star Starachowice	14	4	5	5	-1	17
12	Sokół Kolb.	14	3	7	4	-1	16
13	KS Wieczysta Krakow II	14	4	4	6	-3	16
14	Korona Kielce II	14	4	2	8	-5	14
15	Busko-Zdroj	14	4	2	8	-12	14
16	Podlasie Biała Podlaska	13	3	4	6	-7	13
17	Moravia Morawica	14	2	3	9	-11	9
18	Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów	13	2	2	9	-14	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Jarosław win, at 47.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.