· Analysis updated 06:50 UTC
Wiślanie Jaśkowice vs Star Starachowice Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.22 expected goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice and 0.90 for Star Starachowice, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Wiślanie Jaśkowice the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wiślanie Jaśkowice win
67.4% probability
Expected goals
2.22 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wiślanie Jaśkowice home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Star Starachowice away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wiślanie Jaśkowice to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 19% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.22 goals for Wiślanie Jaśkowice and 0.90 for Star Starachowice, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
81%
Double chance X2
33%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.9%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–09.8%
- 1–18.8%
- 3–08.1%
Recent form
Wiślanie Jaśkowice
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Jarosław · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Busko-Zdroj · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-28T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Czarni Połaniec · 0-1 (L)
Star Starachowice
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs KS Wieczysta Krakow II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Wisłoka Dębica · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sokół Kolb. · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
III Liga - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chełmianka Chełm | 13 | 9 | 4 | 0 | 14 | 31 |
| 2 | KSZO 1929 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 14 | 26 |
| 3 | Wisłoka Dębica | 14 | 8 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 26 |
| 4 | Czarni Połaniec | 14 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 24 |
| 5 | Naprzód | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 23 |
| 6 | Wiślanie Jaśkowice | 14 | 6 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 21 |
| 7 | Hetman Zamosc | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 20 |
| 8 | Wisła Kraków II | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Jarosław | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 10 | Siarka Tarnobrzeg | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 17 |
| 11 | Star Starachowice | 14 | 4 | 5 | 5 | -1 | 17 |
| 12 | Sokół Kolb. | 13 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 13 | KS Wieczysta Krakow II | 13 | 4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 14 | Korona Kielce II | 13 | 4 | 2 | 7 | -3 | 14 |
| 15 | Busko-Zdroj | 14 | 4 | 2 | 8 | -12 | 14 |
| 16 | Podlasie Biała Podlaska | 13 | 3 | 4 | 6 | -7 | 13 |
| 17 | Moravia Morawica | 13 | 2 | 3 | 8 | -10 | 9 |
| 18 | Pogoń-Sokół Lubaczów | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wiślanie Jaśkowice win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.