WIT Georgia vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for WIT Georgia and 1.30 for Lokomotivi Tbilisi, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives WIT Georgia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.50 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

WIT Georgia home form
8 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Lokomotivi Tbilisi away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

WIT Georgia win42%

Draw25%

Lokomotivi Tbilisi win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.9%
1–09.1%
2–18.9%
0–17.9%
1–27.7%

Recent form

WIT Georgia

2026-09-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Iberia 1999 II · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Lokomotivi Tbilisi · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-03T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Iveria Khashuri · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-26T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Iberia 2010 · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Kolkheti Khobi · 2-3 (L)

Lokomotivi Tbilisi

2026-09-17T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Irao · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · A vs WIT Georgia · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Varketili · 3-3 (D)
2026-08-27T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Dinamo Tbilisi II · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-20T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Gonio · 4-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-09-09T12:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 2-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Liga 3)
2026-04-16T12:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 2-2 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Liga 3)
2024-10-19T11:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 1-3 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2024-08-17T16:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 1-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2024-05-11T13:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 3-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2024-03-09T14:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 1-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2023-11-23T14:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 1-3 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2023-09-02T12:45:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 1-0 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2023-05-31T13:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 0-3 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)
2023-04-12T12:00:00.000Z · WIT Georgia 4-1 Lokomotivi Tbilisi (Erovnuli Liga 2)

Liga 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Guria	24	17	4	3	56	55
2	Varketili	24	15	8	1	43	53
3	FC Iberia 1999 II	24	11	10	3	18	43
4	Merani Tbilisi	23	11	7	5	10	40
5	WIT Georgia	23	11	5	7	12	38
6	Gonio	23	11	5	7	8	38
7	Irao	23	10	5	8	11	35
8	Didube 2014	24	9	8	7	4	35
9	Dinamo Tbilisi II	23	9	5	9	1	32
10	Lokomotivi Tbilisi	23	8	7	8	1	31
11	Margveti 2006	24	9	4	11	-9	31
12	Kolkheti Khobi	24	7	4	13	-15	25
13	Iveria Khashuri	24	2	11	11	-16	17
14	Gardabani	24	4	4	16	-40	16
15	Betlemi	24	4	4	16	-48	16
16	Iberia 2010	24	3	5	16	-36	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.