· Analysis updated 14:26 UTC
Witham Town vs Stotfold Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Witham Town and 1.14 for Stotfold, a combined total of 3.14. That distribution gives Witham Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Witham Town win
57.2% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Witham Town home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Stotfold away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Witham Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.00 goals for Witham Town and 1.14 for Stotfold, a combined 3.14 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–08.6%
- 2–08.6%
- 3–16.6%
Recent form
Witham Town
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs St Albans City · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stotfold · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Concord Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Heybridge Swifts · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Tilbury · 1-1 (D)
Stotfold
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Witham Town · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorleston · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Enfield Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Barton Rovers · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:08.000Z · A vs Rayners Lane · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Witham Town win, at 57.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.