· Analysis updated 08:34 UTC
Wolfsberg vs Bleiburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Wolfsberg and 1.78 for Bleiburg, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Bleiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Bleiburg win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 1.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wolfsberg home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bleiburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 23% / 23% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Wolfsberg and 1.78 for Bleiburg, a combined 2.85 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.0%
- 0–110.3%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–29.1%
- 1–06.2%
Recent form
Wolfsberg
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Treibach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Velden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Völkermarkt · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bleiburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC II · 2-2 (D)
Bleiburg
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 1-0 Bleiburg (Regionalliga - South)
- 2026-08-08T15:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 2-2 Bleiburg (Regionalliga - South)
- 2026-05-03T14:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 1-2 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2025-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 0-2 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2024-11-15T18:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 2-0 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2024-08-10T15:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 0-1 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2024-05-08T17:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 0-1 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2023-09-16T14:30:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 1-2 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2023-04-22T14:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 1-2 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
- 2022-09-09T17:00:00.000Z · Wolfsberg 1-4 Bleiburg (Landesliga - Karnten)
Regionalliga - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velden | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 26 |
| 2 | Völkermarkt | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 12 | 23 |
| 3 | Treibach | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 4 | Austria Klagenfurt | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 5 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| 6 | Kalsdorf | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Weiz | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | SV Lafnitz | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 18 |
| 10 | Tillmitsch | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Hartberg (Am) | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Allerheiligen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Gleisdorf 09 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Wolfsberg | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -17 | 11 |
| 15 | Bleiburg | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Donau Klagenfurt | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Bleiburg win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.