· Analysis updated 19:47 UTC
Wolfsberg vs Bleiburg Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.23 expected goals for Wolfsberg and 1.53 for Bleiburg, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Bleiburg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.5% probability
Expected goals
1.23 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Wolfsberg home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Bleiburg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 31% / 25% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.23 goals for Wolfsberg and 1.53 for Bleiburg, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 56%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.7%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–07.8%
- 0–27.4%
Recent form
Wolfsberg
- 2026-10-16T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Treibach · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Velden · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-02T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Völkermarkt · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-25T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Bleiburg · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Wolfsberger AC II · 2-2 (D)
Bleiburg
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Regionalliga - South table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Velden | 13 | 7 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 26 |
| 2 | Treibach | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 23 |
| 3 | Austria Klagenfurt | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 23 |
| 4 | Deutschlandsberger SC | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 22 |
| 5 | Völkermarkt | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 20 |
| 6 | Kalsdorf | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 7 | Weiz | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 8 | SV Lafnitz | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| 9 | Wolfsberger AC | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 18 |
| 10 | Tillmitsch | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Hartberg (Am) | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 13 |
| 12 | Allerheiligen | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 | Gleisdorf 09 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 11 |
| 14 | Wolfsberg | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -17 | 11 |
| 15 | Bleiburg | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Donau Klagenfurt | 13 | 1 | 5 | 7 | -10 | 8 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.