Aggborough Stadium · Analysis updated 05:47 UTC
Wolves U21 vs Fleetwood Town U21 Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Wolves U21 and 0.97 for Fleetwood Town U21, a combined total of 2.76. That distribution gives Wolves U21 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Wolves U21 win
56.4% probability
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.97
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wolves U21 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 56% / 23% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.78 goals for Wolves U21 and 0.97 for Fleetwood Town U21, a combined 2.76 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 52%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Model confidence
The headline pick is rated 56% with moderate confidence, from a data-quality score of 42/100 while season data is still limited.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
44%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.3%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.3%
Recent form
Wolves U21
- 2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton U21 · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Stoke City U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Halifax Town · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-02T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston North End U21 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Manchester City U21 · 0-4 (L)
Fleetwood Town U21
- 2026-08-25T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Coventry City U21 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-18T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston North End U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-14T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Colchester United U21 · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-04-14T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea City U21 · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-07T12:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Bournemouth U21 · 2-6 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League Cup table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Wolves U21 win, at 56.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.