· Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Worcester City vs Leek Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Worcester City and 1.49 for Leek Town, a combined total of 3.11. That distribution gives Worcester City the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.8% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Worcester City home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Leek Town away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Worcester City to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 24% / 35% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Worcester City and 1.49 for Leek Town, a combined 3.11 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.8%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–28.0%
- 1–07.2%
- 0–16.6%
Recent form
Worcester City
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kettering Town · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Racing Club Warwick · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leek Town · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Banbury United · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-18T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stratford Town · 2-1 (W)
Leek Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worcester City · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Hyde United · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromsgrove Sporting · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Athletic · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Khalsa · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2023-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · Worcester City 0-2 Leek Town (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.