· Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Workington vs Blyth Spartans Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Workington and 1.56 for Blyth Spartans, a combined total of 3.28. That distribution gives Workington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
64.7% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Workington home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blyth Spartans away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 5 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
65%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.1%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.9%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.5%
Recent form
Workington
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitby Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-1 (D)
Blyth Spartans
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Wythenshawe Amateurs · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Redcar Town · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs 1874 Northwich · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Hebburn Town · 2-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · Workington 4-2 Blyth Spartans (FA Trophy)
- 2025-03-08T15:00:00.000Z · Workington 4-1 Blyth Spartans (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-09-10T18:45:00.000Z · Workington 0-1 Blyth Spartans (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2012-10-01T18:45:00.000Z · Workington 1-0 Blyth Spartans (FA Cup)
- 2012-09-22T14:00:00.000Z · Workington 1-1 Blyth Spartans (FA Cup)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 64.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.