· Analysis updated 03:49 UTC
Workington vs Ilkeston Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Workington and 1.18 for Ilkeston Town, a combined total of 2.66. That distribution gives Workington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws roughly 56% of the time.
Model pick
Workington or Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.48 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-baseline-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.2%
- 1–010.4%
- 2–19.0%
- 0–18.3%
- 2–07.7%
Why the model likes this
Most likely outcome
The model rates Workington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 26% / 30% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Workington and 1.18 for Ilkeston Town, a combined 2.66 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 50% and both teams to score at 54%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Model confidence
Workington or Draw is the headline pick at 70% with medium confidence, built from team strength, home advantage and competition baselines while season data is still limited.
Recent form
Workington
Ilkeston Town
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction below is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 7 | Ashton United | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | AFC Emley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde United | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 14 | Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
| 22 | United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 1 |
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.