· Analysis updated 19:51 UTC
Workington vs Marske United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.96 expected goals for Workington and 1.30 for Marske United, a combined total of 3.26. That distribution gives Workington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 63% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Workington win
52.9% probability
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Workington home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Workington to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 53% / 22% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.96 goals for Workington and 1.30 for Marske United, a combined 3.26 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 63% and both teams to score at 63%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
75%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
47%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.8%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–07.5%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.3%
Recent form
Workington
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitby Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-1 (D)
Marske United
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Heaton Stannington · 0-3 (L)
- 2025-08-02T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Carlisle City · 2-0 (W)
- 2024-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Crook Town AFC · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-07-09T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Spennymoor Town · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Workington win, at 52.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 63% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.