· Analysis updated 09:55 UTC
Workington vs Whitby Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.75 expected goals for Workington and 1.80 for Whitby Town, a combined total of 4.55. That distribution gives Workington the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Workington win
57.9% probability
Expected goals
2.75 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Workington home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Whitby Town away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 8 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.2%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.5%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Workington
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bamber Bridge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Whitby Town · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Quorn · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Cleethorpes Town · 1-1 (D)
Whitby Town
- 2026-10-13T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Workington · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bamber Bridge · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Gainsborough Trinity · 2-6 (L)
- 2026-09-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lancaster City · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bridlington Town · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-01-10T15:00:00.000Z · Workington 0-0 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2025-08-09T14:00:00.000Z · Workington 1-2 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2025-01-25T15:00:00.000Z · Workington 3-1 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-09-21T14:00:00.000Z · Workington 3-1 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2024-01-27T15:00:00.000Z · Workington 0-0 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2023-11-25T15:00:00.000Z · Workington 1-1 Whitby Town (Non League Premier - Northern)
- 2016-10-29T14:00:00.000Z · Workington 3-4 Whitby Town (FA Trophy)
- 2015-10-31T15:00:00.000Z · Workington 0-3 Whitby Town (FA Trophy)
Non League Premier - Northern table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Redcar Athletic | 15 | 10 | 4 | 1 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Cleethorpes Town | 14 | 9 | 3 | 2 | 22 | 30 |
| 3 | Guiseley AFC | 13 | 9 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 28 |
| 4 | Gainsborough Trinity | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 14 | 28 |
| 5 | Avro | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 28 |
| 6 | Workington | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 1 | 24 |
| 7 | Rylands | 14 | 7 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 23 |
| 8 | Warrington Town | 14 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 23 |
| 9 | Curzon Ashton | 13 | 7 | 1 | 5 | 7 | 22 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 15 | 6 | 2 | 7 | 4 | 20 |
| 11 | Lancaster City | 16 | 6 | 2 | 8 | -9 | 20 |
| 12 | Bury | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 19 |
| 13 | Whitby Town | 15 | 6 | 1 | 8 | -15 | 19 |
| 14 | AFC Emley | 15 | 4 | 5 | 6 | -10 | 17 |
| 15 | Hyde United | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | -14 | 15 |
| 16 | Leek Town | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 14 |
| 17 | Ashton United | 14 | 3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 14 |
| 18 | Quorn | 13 | 3 | 5 | 5 | -6 | 14 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 15 | 3 | 3 | 9 | -10 | 12 |
| 20 | United of Manchester | 13 | 2 | 4 | 7 | -6 | 10 |
| 21 | Bamber Bridge | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -17 | 10 |
| 22 | Ilkeston Town | 15 | 3 | 1 | 11 | -24 | 10 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Workington win, at 57.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.