· Analysis updated 20:08 UTC
Worksop Town vs Garforth Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Worksop Town and 1.30 for Garforth Town, a combined total of 3.16. That distribution gives Worksop Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Worksop Town win
50.6% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Worksop Town home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Garforth Town away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Worksop Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 23% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Worksop Town and 1.30 for Garforth Town, a combined 3.16 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.9%
- 2–07.4%
- 1–26.7%
Recent form
Worksop Town
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Chester · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-22T18:45:00.000Z · H vs AFC Telford United · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Telford United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southport · 2-0 (W)
Garforth Town
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs United of Manchester · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bridlington Town · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worksop Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-21T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Guiseley AFC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Blyth Town · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Worksop Town win, at 50.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.