· Analysis updated 18:23 UTC
Worthing W vs Abingdon United W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.76 expected goals for Worthing W and 1.77 for Abingdon United W, a combined total of 4.53. That distribution gives Worthing W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 83% for over 2.5 goals and 78% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Worthing W win
58.7% probability
Expected goals
2.76 – 1.77
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Worthing W home form
6 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Worthing W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 59% / 18% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.76 goals for Worthing W and 1.77 for Abingdon United W, a combined 4.53 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 83% and both teams to score at 78%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
41%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–17.3%
- 3–16.7%
- 2–26.4%
- 3–25.9%
- 1–15.2%
Recent form
Worthing W
- 2025-11-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs AFC Portchester W · 1-4 (L)
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Abingdon United W · 4-1 (W)
- 2024-12-08T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Exeter City W · 1-3 (L)
- 2024-11-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Aylesford W · 2-2 (D)
- 2024-11-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Comets W · 5-2 (W)
Abingdon United W
- 2025-10-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Worthing W · 1-4 (L)
- 2024-10-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Worthing W · 1-8 (L)
- 2023-11-12T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Dartford W · 0-2 (L)
- 2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · H vs QK · 10-1 (W)
- 2021-11-14T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Southampton WFC W · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
FA Women's Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolton W | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 2 | Harrogate Town W | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Worthing W win, at 58.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 78% and over 2.5 goals at 83%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.