Wrexham vs Burnley Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.03 expected goals for Wrexham and 1.13 for Burnley, a combined total of 3.15. That distribution gives Wrexham the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 61% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Wrexham win

58.2% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.03 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Wrexham home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Burnley away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Wrexham to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.03 goals for Wrexham and 1.13 for Burnley, a combined 3.15 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Wrexham win58%

Draw21%

Burnley win21%

Double chance 1X

79%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

42%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals61%

Over 3.5 goals39%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

2–19.9%
1–19.8%
2–08.8%
1–08.7%
3–16.7%

Recent form

Wrexham

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Southampton · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Burnley · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 0-0 (D)

Burnley

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Watford · 4-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Swansea · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · Wrexham 1-1 Burnley (Championship)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	9	6	2	1	8	20
2	Middlesbrough	9	5	3	1	5	18
3	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
4	Stoke City	9	5	1	3	2	16
5	Wolves	8	4	2	2	4	14
6	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
7	Birmingham	9	3	5	1	2	14
8	Millwall	9	4	2	3	1	14
9	West Brom	9	4	2	3	1	14
10	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	-1	14
11	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
12	Charlton	9	3	4	2	-3	13
13	Blackburn	9	3	3	3	1	12
14	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
15	Wrexham	9	2	5	2	-3	11
16	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
17	Bolton	9	3	1	5	-5	10
18	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
19	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
20	Watford	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Cardiff	9	1	4	4	-3	7
22	Burnley	9	1	4	4	-4	7
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	9	1	1	7	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Wrexham win, at 58.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 61%.

A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.